Tropical Storm Pablo Forecast Discussion Number 7

By | October 27, 2019

Issued at 500 AM AST Sun Oct 27 2019


000
WTNT43 KNHC 270832
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Pablo Discussion Number   7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL182019
500 AM AST Sun Oct 27 2019

Microwave satellite imagery indicates that Pablo has maintained a
small mid-level eye feature for at least the past 18 hours, and
the eye has also been evident in infrared imagery for the past 6
hours. The most recent Dvorak satellite intensity estimate was T3.0,
which was held down due to constraints even though the eye pattern
supports an intensity of 65 kt. Latest UW-CIMSS objective ADT and
SATCON intensity estimates are T4.4/75 kt and 64 kt, respectively.
Based on a blend of the TAFB and UW-CIMSS values, along with the
5- to 8-nmi-diameter eye, the intensity has been increased to 60 kt,
which could be conservative due to the the cyclone's relatively fast
forward speed.

Pablo has continued to accelerate and the initial motion estimate is
now 045/35 kt. The latest model guidance remains in good agreement
that during the next 48 hours, Pablo should slow down while making a
counter-clockwise track around the northeastern periphery of the
larger extratropical low that the small cyclone is embedded within.
The tightly packed guidance suite has shifted to the right of the
previous advisory track, and the new NHC forecast track has been
adjusted in that direction, close to the various consensus models.

Pablo is currently located over 20 deg C sea-surface temperatures
(SST), with colder water near 15 deg C ahead of the cyclone. Model
forecast soundings indicate that mid- and upper-level temperatures
will be warming, and when combined with the cooler SSTs, will result
in stabilization of the troposphere. This will cause convection to
steadily weaken and erode by 12 h, resulting in Pablo degenerating
into a post-tropical extratropical low pressure system in 24 h, if
not sooner. The small cyclone is forecast to dissipate or become
absorbed by the larger parent extratropical low in the 48-72 h
forecast period.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  27/0900Z 40.7N  20.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
 12H  27/1800Z 43.8N  17.6W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  28/0600Z 46.2N  17.8W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 36H  28/1800Z 46.9N  18.9W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  29/0600Z 48.3N  20.3W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  30/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart

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