Tropical Storm Pablo Forecast Discussion Number 4

By | October 26, 2019

Issued at 1100 AM AST Sat Oct 26 2019


000
WTNT43 KNHC 261440
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Pablo Discussion Number   4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL182019
1100 AM AST Sat Oct 26 2019

Pablo has changed little in organization since the last advisory.
The small cyclone is maintaining an area of banded convection near
the center, and there have been occasional appearances of an
eye-like feature.  Recent scatterometer overpasses show several wind
vectors of 40-45 kt, so the initial intensity is nudged upward to
45 kt.

The initial motion is now 090/14, a little faster than before.
Pablo is expected to turn northeastward during the next few hours,
with the small core of the storm passing near or over the eastern
Azores tonight.  After that, the tropical storm should turn
northward and eventually northwestward as it, as well as the
surrounding larger low pressure area, become steered by another
mid-latitude low pressure area developing over the north central
Atlantic.  The first 24 h of the new forecast track is adjusted
somewhat to the east of the previous track based on the initial
position and motion, with only small changes made thereafter.  The
new track lies near the various consensus models.

Little significant change in strength is expected during the next
24 h or so while Pablo moves through an environment that is unstable
enough to support deep convection.  After that time, colder sea
surface temperatures, increasing shear, and a developing frontal
zone near the cyclone should lead to the system becoming
extratropical.  The global models continue to forecast the system to
merge with the mid-latitude low to the west between 48-72 h, so the
intensity forecast shows dissipation during that time.

Given that Pablo is embedded within a large extratropical low,
which itself is forecast to bring strong winds to the Azores, the
Portuguese Institute for the Sea and Atmosphere (IPMA) has included
the effects of this small cyclone in their products.  Those products
already account for the strong winds and high waves expected in the
Azores.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  26/1500Z 35.2N  28.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  27/0000Z 37.4N  25.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  27/1200Z 40.8N  22.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  28/0000Z 43.5N  21.1W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  28/1200Z 45.3N  21.6W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  29/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven

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