Tropical Storm Pablo Forecast Discussion Number 3

By | October 26, 2019

Issued at 500 AM AST Sat Oct 26 2019


000
WTNT43 KNHC 260837
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Pablo Discussion Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL182019
500 AM AST Sat Oct 26 2019

Pablo remains a small cyclone, and recently the eye-like feature
that was noted in earlier satellite images is no longer evident.
Since the system continues to have an area of deep convection
concentrated near the center, it should still be classified as a
tropical cyclone.  The current intensity is held at 40 kt, in
general agreement with the most recent estimate from TAFB, and
pending a new scatterometer overpass.  Pablo is embedded within a
much larger cyclonic circulation that is also producing gale-force
winds well to the north and northwest of the center.

The tropical storm is moving a little south of east at around 8 kt.
A turn toward the northeast and north is expected over the next
couple of days as Pablo moves around the periphery of a large
deep-layer trough over the eastern Atlantic   The official forecast
is a little faster than the previous one but slightly slower than
the latest corrected dynamical model consensus.

Some slight strengthening is possible during the next day or so
while Pablo moves through an environment that is unstable enough to
support deep convection.  However, by 36 hours the cyclone will be
passing over waters of 18 deg C or colder.  This should result in
the system becoming an extratropical low around that time.  In 2-3
days, the global models show the post-tropical low merging with
a larger low over the north Atlantic.

Given that Pablo is embedded within a large extratropical low,
which itself is forecast to bring strong winds to the Azores, the
Portuguese Institute for the Sea and Atmosphere (IPMA) has included
the effects of this small cyclone in their products.  Those products
already account for the strong winds and high waves expected in the
Azores.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  26/0900Z 35.3N  30.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  26/1800Z 36.6N  27.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  27/0600Z 39.5N  23.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  27/1800Z 43.0N  21.3W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  28/0600Z 45.3N  21.3W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  29/0600Z 47.5N  22.5W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  30/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch

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