Tropical Storm Nestor Wind Speed Probabilities Number 7

By | October 19, 2019

Issued at 0300 UTC SAT OCT 19 2019

000
FONT11 KNHC 190235
PWSAT1
TROPICAL STORM NESTOR WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   7           
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL162019               
0300 UTC SAT OCT 19 2019                                            
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NESTOR WAS LOCATED NEAR       
LATITUDE 28.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H.                               
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
00Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
TIME       00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
NORFOLK NAS    34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
NORFOLK VA     34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
OCEANA NAS VA  34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   7( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
ELIZABETH CTY  34  X   X( X)   3( 3)  13(16)   X(16)   X(16)   X(16)
RALEIGH NC     34  X   1( 1)   5( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
ROCKY MT NC    34  X   X( X)   9( 9)   3(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)
CAPE HATTERAS  34  X   X( X)   5( 5)  27(32)   X(32)   X(32)   X(32)
CAPE HATTERAS  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
FAYETTEVILLE   34  X   1( 1)  18(19)   X(19)   X(19)   X(19)   X(19)
CHERRY PT NC   34  X   X( X)  20(20)  13(33)   X(33)   X(33)   X(33)
CHERRY PT NC   50  X   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
NEW RIVER NC   34  X   X( X)  14(14)  17(31)   X(31)   X(31)   X(31)
NEW RIVER NC   50  X   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
MOREHEAD CITY  34  X   X( X)  18(18)  15(33)   X(33)   X(33)   X(33)
MOREHEAD CITY  50  X   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
SURF CITY NC   34  X   1( 1)  28(29)   4(33)   X(33)   X(33)   X(33)
SURF CITY NC   50  X   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
WILMINGTON NC  34  X   1( 1)  29(30)   2(32)   X(32)   X(32)   X(32)
WILMINGTON NC  50  X   X( X)   4( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
BALD HEAD ISL  34  X   1( 1)  25(26)   1(27)   X(27)   X(27)   X(27)
BALD HEAD ISL  50  X   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
FLORENCE SC    34  X   2( 2)  21(23)   X(23)   X(23)   X(23)   X(23)
COLUMBIA SC    34  X   4( 4)   8(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)
LITTLE RIVER   34  X   1( 1)  30(31)   X(31)   X(31)   X(31)   X(31)
LITTLE RIVER   50  X   X( X)   4( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
MYRTLE BEACH   34  X   2( 2)  29(31)   X(31)   X(31)   X(31)   X(31)
MYRTLE BEACH   50  X   X( X)   5( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
GEORGETOWN SC  34  X   2( 2)  26(28)   X(28)   X(28)   X(28)   X(28)
GEORGETOWN SC  50  X   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
CHARLESTON SC  34  X   4( 4)  21(25)   X(25)   X(25)   X(25)   X(25)
CHARLESTON SC  50  X   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
BEAUFORT MCAS  34  1  12(13)  11(24)   X(24)   X(24)   X(24)   X(24)
BEAUFORT MCAS  50  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
AUGUSTA GA     34  1  11(12)   2(14)   X(14)   X(14)   X(14)   X(14)
SAVANNAH GA    34  1  20(21)   4(25)   X(25)   X(25)   X(25)   X(25)
KINGS BAY GA   34  3  12(15)   X(15)   X(15)   X(15)   X(15)   X(15)
WAYCROSS GA    34  6  36(42)   X(42)   X(42)   X(42)   X(42)   X(42)
WAYCROSS GA    50  X   4( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
MAYPORT NS FL  34  3   9(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)
JACKSONVILLE   34  4  11(15)   X(15)   X(15)   X(15)   X(15)   X(15)
GAINESVILLE FL 34 12   8(20)   X(20)   X(20)   X(20)   X(20)   X(20)
DAYTONA BEACH  34  3   3( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
THE VILLAGES   34  8   3(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)
ORLANDO FL     34  3   2( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
COCOA BEACH FL 34  2   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
PATRICK AFB    34  2   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
VENICE FL      34  3   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
TAMPA FL       34  8   2(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)
CEDAR KEY FL   34 26   2(28)   X(28)   X(28)   X(28)   X(28)   X(28)
TALLAHASSEE FL 34 80  12(92)   X(92)   X(92)   X(92)   X(92)   X(92)
TALLAHASSEE FL 50 10  15(25)   X(25)   X(25)   X(25)   X(25)   X(25)
TALLAHASSEE FL 64  X   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
ST MARKS FL    34 84   8(92)   X(92)   X(92)   X(92)   X(92)   X(92)
ST MARKS FL    50 12  16(28)   X(28)   X(28)   X(28)   X(28)   X(28)
ST MARKS FL    64  X   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
APALACHICOLA   34 98   X(98)   X(98)   X(98)   X(98)   X(98)   X(98)
APALACHICOLA   50 34   1(35)   X(35)   X(35)   X(35)   X(35)   X(35)
APALACHICOLA   64  2   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
GFMX 290N 850W 34 93   X(93)   X(93)   X(93)   X(93)   X(93)   X(93)
GFMX 290N 850W 50 19   X(19)   X(19)   X(19)   X(19)   X(19)   X(19)
PANAMA CITY FL 34 90   X(90)   X(90)   X(90)   X(90)   X(90)   X(90)
PANAMA CITY FL 50 13   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)
DESTIN EXEC AP 34  7   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
COLUMBUS GA    34  2   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
GFMX 290N 870W 34 95   X(95)   X(95)   X(95)   X(95)   X(95)   X(95)
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI                                               

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