Tropical Storm Melissa Forecast Discussion Number 12

By | October 14, 2019

Issued at 500 AM AST Mon Oct 14 2019


000
WTNT44 KNHC 140831
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Melissa Discussion Number  12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142019
500 AM AST Mon Oct 14 2019

Melissa is hanging on to tropical storm status.  Satellite images
indicate that an area of deep convection continues to pulse in the
northeastern quadrant of the circulation, but the remainder of the
cyclone consists of a swirl of low-level clouds.  The center of
Melissa is losing definition as it is becoming increasingly
elongated from northeast to southwest due to the interaction with
a front about 90 n mi to its northwest.  An ASCAT-C pass from around
0100 UTC showed maximum winds of about 35 kt in the southeastern
quadrant, and the initial intensity is held at that value.  This
wind speed estimate is a little higher than the Dvorak estimates.

Melissa is expected to remain in hostile conditions of strong
westerly wind shear and dry mid-level air, and it is headed for
progressively cooler waters.  These conditions should promote
weakening and ultimately dissipation within a day or two.
Although the official forecast doesn't show Melissa dissipating
until 36 hours, most of the models show the storm opening up into a
trough later today, so it could certainly dissipate sooner than
forecast.

The tropical storm is moving east-northeastward at 17 kt.  An even
faster east-northeast to east motion is expected until the
cyclone dissipates as it moves within the mid-latitude westerlies.
The NHC track forecast lies near the middle of the tightly-packed
guidance envelope.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  14/0900Z 40.7N  54.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  14/1800Z 41.2N  50.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  15/0600Z 41.5N  43.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  15/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

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