Tropical Storm Harold Forecast Discussion Number 5

By | August 22, 2023

WTNT44 KNHC 221450

Tropical Storm Harold Discussion Number   5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092023
1000 AM CDT Tue Aug 22 2023

Radar data from Brownsville, Texas, indicate that the center of 
Harold reformed to the north of the previous Air Force Hurricane 
Hunter fixes and has now made landfall over Padre Island, Texas 
between Port Mansfield and Corpus Christi. The NOAA Buoy at Padre 
Island recently reported sustained tropical-storm-force winds with 
gusts around 50 kt, and tropical-storm-force have very recently been 
reported along portions of the south Texas coast. Bands of heavy 
rain are spreading inland over south Texas, mostly to the north of 
the center. The initial intensity is set at 45 kt based on radar 
data and surface observations.  

Harold is moving quickly to the west-northwest at 18 kt in the flow
on the south side of a strong mid-level ridge.  The storm is
expected to move farther inland across southern Texas and northern 
Mexico during the next day or so as it remains on the south side of 
the ridge.

Since the center of the storm has reached the coast, the window for
strengthening has closed.  Land interaction should cause a quick
decay, and Harold is expected to become a tropical depression later
today and dissipate on Wednesday.


1. Heavy rainfall is expected across south Texas through early
Wednesday, and may produce areas of flash and urban flooding. Across
portions of northern Coahuila and northern Nuevo Leon in Mexico,
flash flooding with possible landslides in mountainous terrain is
expected through Wednesday.

2. Coastal flooding is possible along the south Texas coast
through this afternoon.

3. Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue in the
warning area during the next several hours.


INIT  22/1500Z 27.1N  97.4W   45 KT  50 MPH...ON THE COAST
 12H  23/0000Z 27.7N  99.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 24H  23/1200Z 29.5N 103.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
 36H  24/0000Z...DISSIPATED

Forecaster Cangialosi

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