Tropical Storm Gert Forecast Discussion Number 23

By | September 3, 2023

000
WTNT42 KNHC 031443
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Gert Discussion Number  23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062023
1100 AM AST Sun Sep 03 2023

Gert may finally be on the verge of weakening. Its low-level center
has become exposed to the northeast of a shrinking area of
convection. That said, Dvorak-based satellite intensity estimates
have not started to decrease quite yet, so the intensity estimate
remains 50 kt for this advisory. A drifting buoy just south of
Gert's center reported a minimum pressure of 999 mb at 1200 UTC,
which also supports a minimum pressure similar to previous NHC
estimates. Partial ASCAT or SAR data may be available later today to
provide additional information on Gert's wind field.

Gert is accelerating north-northeastward. Additional acceleration is 
expected as Gert begins its anticipated rotation around the much 
larger circulation of Post-Tropical Cyclone Idalia, located to the 
northwest of Gert. As Gert quickly rotates northward around the 
eastern side of Idalia, all available dynamical guidance indicates 
Gert will weaken slightly and open into a trough. The NHC forecast 
maintains Gert as a tropical cyclone a little longer than the models 
since most of them seem to be having trouble initializing the small 
tropical storm appropriately. The NHC track, intensity, and wind 
radii forecasts are all very similar to the previous advisory.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  03/1500Z 31.2N  51.9W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  04/0000Z 34.1N  51.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  04/1200Z 38.8N  52.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  05/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky

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