Tropical Storm Emily Forecast Discussion Number 4

By | August 21, 2023

WTNT42 KNHC 210844

Tropical Storm Emily Discussion Number   4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL072023
500 AM AST Mon Aug 21 2023

During the past few hours, Emily has rapidly lost what remained of 
its deep convection displaced well to the northeast of the exposed 
surface center.  The initial intensity estimate is lowered to 35 kt 
for this advisory and is supported by the available subjective and 
objective satellite intensity estimates.  The environment 
surrounding Emily is forecast to become increasingly belligerent by 
tonight due to deep-layer shear increasing to near 40 kt and a an 
intruding dry stable air mass.  These negatively contributing 
atmospheric conditions should induce gradual weakening, and Emily 
should become a post-tropical cyclone by this evening.

The initial motion is estimated to be west-northwestward, or 290/10 
kt.  During the next several days, Emily should maintain a general 
west-northwestward motion while being steered by a low to 
mid-tropospheric ridge to the north.  By the 48 hour period, a 
gradual turn northward is expected after Emily degenerates to 
remnant low, rounding the southern periphery of the aforementioned 
subtropical ridge. The track guidance is in good agreement on this 
scenario, and the NHC track forecast is basically an update of the 
previous advisory.


INIT  21/0900Z 20.7N  41.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  21/1800Z 21.1N  42.6W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 24H  22/0600Z 21.9N  44.6W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  22/1800Z 22.8N  46.6W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  23/0600Z 24.2N  48.4W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  23/1800Z 26.1N  49.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  24/0600Z 28.3N  49.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  25/0600Z 33.6N  50.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  26/0600Z...DISSIPATED

Forecaster Roberts

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