Tropical Storm Earl Wind Speed Probabilities Number 9

By | September 5, 2022

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FONT11 KNHC 050245
PWSAT1

TROPICAL STORM EARL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   9             
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062022               
0300 UTC MON SEP 05 2022                                            

AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EARL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
20.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR  
45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H.                                          

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      

WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 


  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   

               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT

FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   

BERMUDA        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  17(19)  25(44)
BERMUDA        50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)  14(19)
BERMUDA        64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   7( 9)

AGUADILLA PR   34  1   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

VIEQUES PR     34  1   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

SAINT THOMAS   34  1   2( 3)   2( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)

SAINT JOHN     34  1   3( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)

SAINT MAARTEN  34  1   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

$$                                                                  
FORECASTER PASCH                                                    

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