Tropical Storm Earl Forecast Advisory Number 3

By | September 3, 2022

000
WTNT21 KNHC 031454
TCMAT1

TROPICAL STORM EARL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062022
1500 UTC SAT SEP 03 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND
PUERTO RICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EARL.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.0N  62.4W AT 03/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT  11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT.......150NE 120SE   0SW  30NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.0N  62.4W AT 03/1500Z
AT 03/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.9N  61.9W

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 19.5N  63.6W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT...120NE  90SE   0SW  30NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 20.3N  65.0W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT...100NE  80SE   0SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 21.0N  65.7W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT...100NE  80SE   0SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 21.8N  66.3W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...100NE  80SE  30SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 22.7N  66.6W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...100NE  80SE  40SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 24.0N  66.6W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT...100NE  90SE  50SW  70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 07/1200Z 25.3N  65.9W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 08/1200Z 27.0N  64.5W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.0N  62.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER REINHART


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