Tropical Storm Earl Forecast Advisory Number 15

By | September 6, 2022

000
WTNT21 KNHC 061448
TCMAT1

TROPICAL STORM EARL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062022
1500 UTC TUE SEP 06 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN BERMUDA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
EARL.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.7N  65.7W AT 06/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  35 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT   4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  996 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  55 KT WITH GUSTS TO  65 KT.
50 KT....... 60NE  30SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT.......100NE  90SE  20SW  70NW.
12 FT SEAS..135NE  60SE  30SW 105NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.7N  65.7W AT 06/1500Z
AT 06/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.5N  65.7W

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 24.4N  65.8W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  30SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE  30SW  80NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 25.5N  65.7W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE   0SW  40NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE  60SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 26.8N  65.5W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE   0SW  20NW.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...110NE 110SE  80SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 28.6N  65.0W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  20NW.
50 KT... 70NE  60SE  50SW  50NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 100SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 30.6N  63.8W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 70NE  80SE  60SW  50NW.
34 KT...140NE 140SE 120SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 33.0N  61.4W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 80NE  90SE  70SW  60NW.
34 KT...150NE 170SE 140SW 110NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 10/1200Z 39.3N  52.8W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 11/1200Z 44.0N  44.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.7N  65.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN


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