Tropical Storm Earl Forecast Advisory Number 12

By | September 5, 2022

466 
WTNT21 KNHC 052043
TCMAT1

TROPICAL STORM EARL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062022
2100 UTC MON SEP 05 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN BERMUDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EARL.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.2N  65.2W AT 05/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT   5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  998 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  55 KT WITH GUSTS TO  65 KT.
50 KT....... 50NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT....... 90NE  90SE   0SW  70NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE  45SE  15SW  90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.2N  65.2W AT 05/2100Z
AT 05/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.9N  65.2W

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 22.9N  65.3W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  20SE   0SW  40NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE  30SW  80NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 23.8N  65.5W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE   0SW  40NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE  60SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 24.8N  65.5W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...110NE 110SE  80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 26.0N  65.4W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  25SE  20SW  20NW.
50 KT... 70NE  60SE  50SW  50NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 27.6N  65.2W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
50 KT... 70NE  70SE  60SW  60NW.
34 KT...130NE 140SE 120SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 29.2N  64.4W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 80NE  80SE  70SW  60NW.
34 KT...140NE 160SE 130SW 110NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 09/1800Z 33.0N  60.5W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 10/1800Z 37.0N  56.5W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.2N  65.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN



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