Tropical Storm Earl Forecast Advisory Number 11

By | September 5, 2022

000
WTNT21 KNHC 051448
TCMAT1

TROPICAL STORM EARL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062022
1500 UTC MON SEP 05 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND BERMUDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
EARL.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.5N  65.3W AT 05/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT   4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  998 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  55 KT WITH GUSTS TO  65 KT.
50 KT....... 50NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT....... 90NE  90SE   0SW  60NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE  45SE   0SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.5N  65.3W AT 05/1500Z
AT 05/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.5N  65.2W

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 22.5N  65.3W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  20SE   0SW  40NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE  30SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 23.7N  65.5W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE   0SW  40NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE  50SW  80NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 24.7N  65.6W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE   0SW  40NW.
34 KT...110NE 110SE  60SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 25.9N  65.6W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...110NE 110SE  90SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 27.0N  65.3W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  60SE  50SW  50NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 110SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 28.3N  64.8W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 70NE  80SE  60SW  60NW.
34 KT...130NE 140SE 120SW 110NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 09/1200Z 31.3N  62.8W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 10/1200Z 34.4N  59.1W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.5N  65.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN


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