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TROPICAL STORM DEBBY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042024
1500 UTC SUN AUG 04 2024
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DEBBY WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 27.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
CAPE HENLOPEN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5)
OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6)
PAX RIVER NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
WALLOPS CDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6)
RICHMOND VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
DANVILLE VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3)
NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
OCEANA NAS VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9)
ELIZABETH CTY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4)
GREENSBORO NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4)
RALEIGH NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4)
ROCKY MT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5)
CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 5(10)
FAYETTEVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7)
CHARLOTTE NC 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4)
CHERRY PT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6)
NEW RIVER NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) 6(15)
MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) 5(15)
SURF CITY NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 7(12) 5(17)
WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 4( 6) 3( 9)
BALD HEAD ISL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 6(10) 8(18) 3(21)
BALD HEAD ISL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4)
FLORENCE SC 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 3( 7) 2( 9)
COLUMBIA SC 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) 2( 6) 3( 9) 1(10)
LITTLE RIVER 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 6(12) 8(20) 3(23)
LITTLE RIVER 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5)
MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) 7(15) 8(23) 3(26)
MYRTLE BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5)
GEORGETOWN SC 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 4( 8) 4(12) 2(14)
CHARLESTON SC 34 X 4( 4) 10(14) 6(20) 12(32) 5(37) 3(40)
CHARLESTON SC 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 1( 7) 1( 8)
CHARLESTON SC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
BEAUFORT MCAS 34 1 7( 8) 17(25) 9(34) 12(46) 3(49) 1(50)
BEAUFORT MCAS 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 5(10) 1(11) 1(12)
BEAUFORT MCAS 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
ATLANTA GA 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) 1( 6) X( 6)
AUGUSTA GA 34 X 2( 2) 5( 7) 3(10) 4(14) 1(15) X(15)
SAVANNAH GA 34 1 3( 4) 13(17) 8(25) 7(32) 1(33) 1(34)
SAVANNAH GA 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
KINGS BAY GA 34 12 24(36) 25(61) 4(65) 2(67) 1(68) X(68)
KINGS BAY GA 50 X 2( 2) 12(14) 3(17) 2(19) X(19) 1(20)
KINGS BAY GA 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 1( 4)
WAYCROSS GA 34 2 20(22) 38(60) 3(63) 1(64) X(64) X(64)
WAYCROSS GA 50 X 1( 1) 13(14) 2(16) X(16) X(16) X(16)
WAYCROSS GA 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
MAYPORT NS FL 34 13 23(36) 23(59) 2(61) 3(64) 1(65) X(65)
MAYPORT NS FL 50 X 2( 2) 8(10) 3(13) 2(15) X(15) 1(16)
MAYPORT NS FL 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
JACKSONVILLE 34 4 15(19) 22(41) 2(43) 1(44) X(44) 1(45)
JACKSONVILLE 50 X 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
GAINESVILLE FL 34 23 33(56) 5(61) X(61) X(61) X(61) 1(62)
GAINESVILLE FL 50 1 12(13) 3(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16)
DAYTONA BEACH 34 4 7(11) 5(16) 1(17) 1(18) 1(19) X(19)
THE VILLAGES 34 23 17(40) 2(42) 1(43) X(43) X(43) X(43)
THE VILLAGES 50 1 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
ORLANDO FL 34 6 7(13) 2(15) X(15) X(15) 1(16) X(16)
COCOA BEACH FL 34 13 9(22) 5(27) 1(28) 2(30) 1(31) X(31)
PATRICK AFB 34 13 9(22) 5(27) 2(29) 2(31) X(31) X(31)
FT PIERCE FL 34 9 6(15) 4(19) 1(20) 1(21) 1(22) X(22)
W PALM BEACH 34 6 5(11) 1(12) 1(13) X(13) 1(14) X(14)
FT LAUDERDALE 34 5 3( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10)
MIAMI FL 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
MARATHON FL 34 4 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
KEY WEST FL 34 4 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
NAPLES FL 34 17 5(22) 2(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) 1(25)
FT MYERS FL 34 6 3( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10)
VENICE FL 34 82 X(82) 1(83) X(83) X(83) X(83) X(83)
VENICE FL 50 6 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
TAMPA FL 34 75 4(79) 1(80) 1(81) X(81) X(81) X(81)
TAMPA FL 50 13 5(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18)
CEDAR KEY FL 34 78 14(92) X(92) X(92) 1(93) X(93) X(93)
CEDAR KEY FL 50 29 38(67) X(67) X(67) X(67) X(67) X(67)
CEDAR KEY FL 64 1 10(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12)
TALLAHASSEE FL 34 8 60(68) 3(71) 1(72) X(72) X(72) X(72)
TALLAHASSEE FL 50 X 28(28) 9(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) X(37)
TALLAHASSEE FL 64 X 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
ST MARKS FL 34 16 65(81) 1(82) 1(83) X(83) X(83) X(83)
ST MARKS FL 50 1 45(46) 5(51) X(51) X(51) X(51) X(51)
ST MARKS FL 64 X 7( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
APALACHICOLA 34 45 30(75) 2(77) 1(78) X(78) X(78) X(78)
APALACHICOLA 50 9 43(52) 2(54) X(54) X(54) X(54) X(54)
APALACHICOLA 64 X 15(15) 1(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16)
GFMX 290N 850W 34 67 17(84) X(84) 1(85) X(85) X(85) X(85)
GFMX 290N 850W 50 47 26(73) X(73) X(73) X(73) X(73) X(73)
GFMX 290N 850W 64 4 16(20) 1(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21)
PANAMA CITY FL 34 16 28(44) 5(49) 1(50) X(50) 1(51) X(51)
PANAMA CITY FL 50 1 13(14) 2(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16)
PANAMA CITY FL 64 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
DESTIN EXEC AP 34 1 3( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
ALBANY GA 34 2 13(15) 25(40) 2(42) X(42) X(42) X(42)
ALBANY GA 50 X 1( 1) 7( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
COLUMBUS GA 34 1 2( 3) 6( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) 1(11)
MACON GA 34 1 2( 3) 11(14) 4(18) X(18) 1(19) X(19)
DOTHAN AL 34 1 6( 7) 8(15) X(15) X(15) 1(16) X(16)
BIRMINGHAM AL 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
MONTGOMERY AL 34 X 3( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
WHITING FLD FL 34 1 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
PENSACOLA FL 34 1 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
GFMX 290N 870W 34 5 7(12) 3(15) 1(16) X(16) X(16) X(16)
MOBILE AL 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
GFMX 280N 890W 34 2 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
GRAND BAHAMA 34 1 X( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
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