Tropical Storm Danielle Forecast Discussion Number 29

By | September 8, 2022

416 
WTNT45 KNHC 080835
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Danielle Discussion Number  29
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052022
900 AM GMT Thu Sep 08 2022

Danielle is losing its tropical characteristics. The deep convection 
has completely eroded across the southwestern portion of the 
circulation. There is no longer an eye-like feature as seen 
yesterday, and the system is taking on characteristics more similar 
to the comma-shaped cloud shield of a mid-latitude cyclone. The 
latest Dvorak intensity estimates suggest that Danielle is no longer 
a hurricane, and the initial intensity has been decreased to 60 kt 
for this advisory.

The cyclone is expected to quickly complete extratropical transition 
through this morning due to higher shear, interaction with a mid- to 
upper-level trough just to its west, and cool SSTs along its 
forecast track. These conditions are also expected to cause Danielle 
to continue weakening through the remainder of the forecast period. 
The latest NHC intensity forecast was once again tweaked slightly 
lower than the previous one, mainly to adjust for the lower initial 
intensity.

Danielle is moving northeastward at 14 kt, and this general motion 
should continue for the next few hours. A slow down and 
counterclockwise loop is expected to occur later today and Friday 
when the cyclone interacts with the trough that is expected to cut 
off. After that time, a faster motion to the southeast is forecast, 
which should take the extratropical cyclone toward western Europe by 
the end of the period. The NHC track forecast was adjusted a little 
to the right after the counterclockwise loop due to an overall shift 
in the model guidance. 

Danielle continues to produce a large area of very rough seas over
the central-north Atlantic.  More information can be found in the
High Seas Forecasts issued by the Ocean Prediction Center under
AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at
ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php. The UK Met Office also has
information in High Seas Forecasts for the west Central and east
Central sections issued under WMO header FQNT21 EGRR and on the web
at metoffice.gov.uk/weather/specialist-forecasts/coast-and-sea/high-
seas-forecast. Meteo France's High Seas Forecast also includes
information regarding Danielle at http://weather.gmdss.org/II.html.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  08/0900Z 46.8N  32.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
 12H  08/1800Z 48.5N  30.9W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 24H  09/0600Z 49.9N  31.6W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 36H  09/1800Z 49.5N  33.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  10/0600Z 47.2N  31.7W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 60H  10/1800Z 44.4N  26.5W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  11/0600Z 42.8N  21.4W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  12/0600Z 41.5N  14.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  13/0600Z 43.3N   9.3W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Latto


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