Tropical Storm Danielle Forecast Discussion Number 2

By | September 1, 2022

WTNT45 KNHC 011444

Tropical Storm Danielle Discussion Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052022
300 PM GMT Thu Sep 01 2022

A recent ASCAT pass revealed areas of tropical-storm-force winds and 
the initial intensity is raised to 35 kt making the system Tropical 
Storm Danielle.  Visible satellite imagery also shows convective 
coverage expanding and obscuring the low-level circulation.

The initial motion of the storm is eastward at 3 kt.  The tropical 
storm is located in an area of light winds and weak steering under 
an omega block.  This will likely cause the system to slowly drift 
around the same general area until the anticyclone weakens and a 
mid-latitude trough steers Danielle poleward around day 4.  The 
official track forecast is similar to the previous advisory 
prediction and lies between the model consensus aids.

Danielle is over an area of warmer than average ocean waters.  
Atmospheric conditions are also forecast to be relatively favorable, 
with light- to moderate-northerly to northwesterly shear for the 
next three days or so.  The NHC forecast calls for additional 
strengthening and Danielle is expected to become a hurricane in two 
days and peak in intensity in about 4 days.  When the storm moves 
northward, Danielle will likely weaken as it moves over cooler sea 
surface temperatures and the vertical wind shear increases.


INIT  01/1500Z 38.1N  44.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  02/0000Z 38.2N  44.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  02/1200Z 38.2N  44.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  03/0000Z 38.1N  44.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  03/1200Z 38.0N  44.2W   65 KT  75 MPH
 60H  04/0000Z 38.0N  44.8W   70 KT  80 MPH
 72H  04/1200Z 38.5N  44.9W   75 KT  85 MPH
 96H  05/1200Z 40.0N  43.6W   80 KT  90 MPH
120H  06/1200Z 42.0N  42.0W   75 KT  85 MPH

Forecaster Bucci/Cangialosi

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