Tropical Storm Cristobal Forecast Discussion Number 6

By | June 3, 2020

Issued at 1000 PM CDT Tue Jun 02 2020


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WTNT43 KNHC 030238
TCDAT3
 
Tropical Storm Cristobal Discussion Number   6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL032020
1000 PM CDT Tue Jun 02 2020

Cristobal has become a little better organized this evening.  There 
has there has been an increase in convective banding near and to the 
east of the center in both satellite and radar imagery.  An Air 
Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft that investigated the storm 
this evening found peak 925-mb flight-level winds of 52 kt and peak 
SFMR winds of 45-47 kt.  An automated Mexican weather station on an 
elevated offshore platform has measured slightly stronger winds than 
the SFMR, but a blend of these data support an initial intensity of 
45 kt.  The aircraft reported a minimum pressure of 996 mb on its 
final pass through the center. 

Recent aircraft and satellite fixes show that Cristobal has been 
meandering for much of the day, with perhaps a south or southeast 
drift evident.  The storm is expected to move slowly southward or 
southeastward as it remains within a larger cyclonic gyre centered 
over eastern Mexico.  This motion should bring the center onshore 
over the southern Bay of Campeche coast later tonight or on 
Wednesday.  After landfall, Cristobal is forecast to continue to 
move very slowly toward the east or southeast through early 
Thursday.  After that time, increasing southerly flow should allow 
the storm to begin moving northward over the central and northern 
Gulf of Mexico by the weekend.  There has been a slight eastward 
adjustment in the early portion of the track forecast due to a 
slightly more eastward initial position, but after 36 h very little 
change to the previous forecast was required. The new NHC track 
forecast is again near the various consensus aids and is a blend of 
the GFS and ECMWF models. Although there is less spread in the track 
guidance this cycle, there is still a fair amount of uncertainty in 
the track forecast at 72 h and beyond due to the expected land 
interaction within the next day or so, and a potential for center 
reformations as the system re-organizes in 2-3 days.

Some additional strengthening is possible overnight before 
Cristobal reaches the coast of Mexico.  Weakening is likely on 
Wednesday and Wednesday night while the circulation encounters 
land.  Once the system moves over the Gulf of Mexico, environmental 
conditions are expected to support re-intensification.  The NHC 
intensity forecast is closest to the HWRF model and is a bit less 
aggressive than the statistical guidance or the HFIP-corrected 
consensus model since there is uncertainly regarding structure of 
the system after it interacts with land.  

 
Key Messages:
 
1. Deadly flooding has already occurred in portions of Guatemala and
El Salvador, and Cristobal is expected to bring additional heavy
rainfall to portions of southern Mexico, Guatemala, Honduras, and El
Salvador, which could cause life-threatening flash flooding and
mudslides. Refer to products from your national meteorological
service for more information.
 
2. Tropical storm conditions will continue along the coast of
Mexico where a tropical storm warning is in effect.
 
3. Cristobal is forecast to begin moving northward across the Gulf
of Mexico on Friday, and there is a risk of storm surge, rainfall,
and wind impacts this weekend along portions of the U.S. Gulf Coast
from Texas to the Florida Panhandle. While it is too soon to
determine the exact location, timing, and magnitude of these
impacts, interests in these areas should monitor the progress of
Cristobal and ensure they have their hurricane plan in place.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  03/0300Z 19.1N  92.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  03/1200Z 18.7N  92.1W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  04/0000Z 18.4N  91.8W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
 36H  04/1200Z 18.3N  91.3W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 48H  05/0000Z 18.8N  91.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 60H  05/1200Z 19.6N  91.1W   35 KT  40 MPH...OVER WATER
 72H  06/0000Z 21.2N  91.1W   40 KT  45 MPH...OVER WATER
 96H  07/0000Z 25.0N  91.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...OVER WATER
120H  08/0000Z 29.0N  91.7W   55 KT  65 MPH...OVER WATER
 
$$
Forecaster Brown
 

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