Tropical Storm Cristobal Forecast Discussion Number 5

By | June 2, 2020

Issued at 400 PM CDT Tue Jun 02 2020


000
WTNT43 KNHC 022039
TCDAT3
 
Tropical Storm Cristobal Discussion Number   5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL032020
400 PM CDT Tue Jun 02 2020
 
Observations from the Hurricane Hunters around midday indicated 
winds to tropical storm force over the southwestern quadrant, so the 
cyclone was named.  Since that time, scatterometer data suggested 
that the wind field has become a little more symmetrical. The 
current intensity is held at 35 kt for this advisory, which is a 
little above the subjective Dvorak estimates.  Some strengthening 
could occur overnight since the cyclone is in a conducive 
atmospheric and oceanic environment.  However, it now seems likely 
that the system will make landfall over eastern Mexico on Wednesday 
which should cause weakening.  Assuming that the center emerges over 
the Gulf of Mexico later in the week, some re-intensification is 
forecast.  However, stronger shear over the northern Gulf should 
limit the increase in strength.  The official intensity forecast is 
close to the latest LGEM guidance.

Satellite and radar imagery from Mexico indicate that the cyclone 
is moving slowly southward, or around 170/3 kt.  The system appears 
to be rotating within a larger cyclonic gyre centered over eastern 
Mexico.  The global models show that Cristobal will be trapped 
between two high pressure areas and have little overall movement for 
the next few days.  However, the slow, cyclonically looping 
movement of the cyclone should take the center over eastern Mexico 
on Wednesday and Thursday.  Later in the week, increasing southerly 
flow should steer the system northward over the Gulf of Mexico and 
near the northern Gulf coast by the weekend.  The official track 
forecast lies near the latest dynamical model consensus, and is 
roughly in the middle of the track guidance suite.  Given the spread 
in this guidance, there is a significant amount of uncertainty in 
the NHC forecast at days 4-5.

Key Messages:
 
1. Deadly flooding has already occurred in portions of Guatemala and 
El Salvador, and Cristobal is expected to bring additional heavy 
rainfall to portions of southern Mexico, Guatemala, Honduras, and El 
Salvador, which could cause life-threatening flash flooding and 
mudslides. Refer to products from your national meteorological 
service for more information.

2. Tropical storm conditions will continue along the coast of 
Mexico where a tropical storm warning is in effect.

3. Cristobal is forecast to begin moving northward across the Gulf 
of Mexico on Friday, and there is a risk of storm surge, rainfall, 
and wind impacts this weekend along portions of the U.S. Gulf Coast 
from Texas to the Florida Panhandle. While it is too soon to 
determine the exact location, timing, and magnitude of these 
impacts, interests in these areas should monitor the progress of 
Cristobal and ensure they have their hurricane plan in place.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  02/2100Z 19.1N  92.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  03/0600Z 18.8N  92.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  03/1800Z 18.4N  92.4W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
 36H  04/0600Z 18.2N  91.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 48H  04/1800Z 18.5N  91.6W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 60H  05/0600Z 19.1N  91.4W   35 KT  40 MPH...OVER WATER
 72H  05/1800Z 20.4N  91.5W   40 KT  45 MPH...OVER WATER
 96H  06/1800Z 23.7N  91.2W   45 KT  50 MPH...OVER WATER
120H  07/1800Z 28.0N  91.5W   55 KT  65 MPH...OVER WATER
 
$$
Forecaster Pasch
 

Leave a Reply