312 WTNT42 KNHC 030840 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Arlene Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022023 400 AM CDT Sat Jun 03 2023 Arlene appears to be commencing a weakening trend. The strong southwesterly shear that had been affecting the system has shifted to a westerly or west-northwesterly direction, likely because the upper-level trough axis has moved to the east of the tropical cyclone. This is causing an even more hostile upper-level environment for Arlene on the back side of the upper trough, since the deep convection is weakening while being stripped farther to the east of the center. The current intensity estimate is kept at 35 kt for this advisory, in agreement with a subjective Dvorak estimate from TAFB and an objective estimate from UW-CIMSS. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system later this morning. The cyclone is moving a little faster toward the south-southeast, or at about 150/8 kt. Today and tonight, Arlene is expected to turn toward the southeast within the flow on the western and southern side of a mid-level trough near the Florida Peninsula. The official track forecast is close to both the simple and corrected dynamical consensus model solutions. Based on the current trends in the cloud pattern and the unfavorable atmospheric environment of strong shear and relatively dry low- to mid-tropospheric air, weakening is likely. Arlene is forecast to become a depression later today, degenerate into a remnant low late tonight or early Sunday, and dissipate thereafter. This is similar to the previous official forecast and in good agreement with the numerical guidance. Although Arlene is forecast to weaken well offshore, there is still the potential for heavy rainfall over portions of the southern Florida peninsula through today. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/0900Z 24.5N 85.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 03/1800Z 23.7N 84.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 04/0600Z 23.3N 82.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 04/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
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