000 WTNT42 KNHC 030236 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Arlene Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022023 1000 PM CDT Fri Jun 02 2023 Arlene is only producing small bursts of convection to the north and northeast of its exposed low-level center tonight. The Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunters investigated the cyclone earlier this evening and reported peak 850-mb flight-level winds of 45 kt in the northwestern portion of the circulation. These winds support an initial intensity of 35 kt, which is also consistent with the latest satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and UW-CIMSS. Arlene is moving south-southeastward (155 degrees) at 6 kt. The cyclone remains embedded within a mid-level trough, which is resulting in significant vertical wind shear over the system. The steering flow on the upstream side of this trough should keep the cyclone moving generally southeastward during the next day or so. An increasingly dry and confluent environment aloft, along with continued deep-layer shear, is expected to limit new convective development overnight. The NHC forecast shows Arlene spinning down over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico, degenerating to a remnant low on Saturday and dissipating by early Sunday. Although Arlene is forecast to weaken well offshore, there is still the potential for heavy rainfall over portions of the southern Florida peninsula through Saturday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/0300Z 25.4N 85.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 03/1200Z 24.4N 85.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 04/0000Z 23.5N 84.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 04/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Reinhart
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