Tropical Depression Three Forecast Discussion Number 4

By | June 2, 2020

Issued at 1000 AM CDT Tue Jun 02 2020


000
WTNT43 KNHC 021504
TCDAT3
 
Tropical Depression Three Discussion Number   4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL032020
1000 AM CDT Tue Jun 02 2020

An Air Force Reserve Unit Hurricane Hunter aircraft is currently 
investigating the depression and has found that the system is very 
close to tropical storm strength.  Based on flight-level and 
SFMR-observed surface winds from the plane, the intensity is held at 
30 kt for now.  Since the cyclone is over very warm waters with 
fairly low vertical shear, intensification to a tropical storm 
should occur today.  The official intensity forecast is close to the 
model consensus.  The intensity forecast later in the period is 
dependent on how much shear the system will encounter over the 
northern Gulf of Mexico and this is somewhat uncertain.  For now, 
the intensity forecast will remain conservative.
 
The initial motion estimate is slowly westward, or 270/3 kt.  The 
cyclone is expected to remain in weak steering currents over the 
Bay of Campeche for the next couple of days, with the system moving 
slowly within a broader gyre over eastern Mexico.  Global models 
show the cyclone being trapped between two mid-level anticyclones 
until later in the week, when some increase in southerly flow should 
begin to carry the system toward the northern Gulf of Mexico 
coastline.  The official track forecast closely follows the 
dynamical model consensus.
 
At this time, both the track and intensity forecasts are of low 
confidence.  However, for the next couple of days, the main threat 
from this slow-moving cyclone is from widespread heavy rains over 
portions of southern Mexico and Central America.


Key Messages:
 
1. Deadly flooding has already occurred in portions of Guatemala and 
El Salvador, and the depression is expected to bring
additional heavy rainfall to portions of southern Mexico, Guatemala, 
Honduras, and El Salvador, which could cause life-threatening flash 
flooding and mudslides. Refer to products from your local weather 
office for more information.
 
2. Tropical storm conditions are expected along the coast of Mexico 
where a tropical storm warning is in effect.
 
3. The system is forecast to begin moving northward across the Gulf 
of Mexico by this weekend.  However, it is too soon to specify the 
location and timing of any potential impacts along the U.S. Gulf 
Coast.  Interests in these areas should monitor the progress of this 
system through the week and ensure they have their hurricane plan in 
place as we begin the season.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  02/1500Z 19.5N  92.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  03/0000Z 19.5N  92.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  03/1200Z 19.0N  92.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  04/0000Z 18.8N  92.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  04/1200Z 18.8N  92.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 60H  05/0000Z 18.9N  91.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
 72H  05/1200Z 19.8N  91.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
 96H  06/1200Z 22.0N  91.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
120H  07/1200Z 26.0N  91.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Pasch
 

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