Tropical Depression Three Forecast Discussion Number 2

By | July 23, 2019

Issued at 1100 PM EDT Mon Jul 22 2019


000
WTNT43 KNHC 230232
TCDAT3

Tropical Depression Three Discussion Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL032019
1100 PM EDT Mon Jul 22 2019

The depression has become less organized this evening.  Much of the
deep convection seen earlier in the day has dissipated, and the
cyclone currently consists of a swirl of low-level clouds with some
shower activity.  The initial intensity is held at 25 kt based on
the earlier ASCAT data.

The system is moving northwestward at 9 kt, steered by the
southwestern periphery of the Atlantic subtropical ridge.  A turn to
the north and north-northeast with a notable increase in forward
speed is expected on Tuesday as the depression moves in the
flow between the subtropical ridge and an approaching deep-layer
trough moving across the eastern United States.  The NHC track
forecast is similar to the previous one and keeps the center of the
cyclone offshore of the east coast of Florida.  This prediction is
near the multi-model consensus TVCN.

Significant strengthening of the depression is not expected given
its poor initial state and because it is forecast to move into a
region of strong southwesterly flow aloft by late Tuesday.  In
fact, the global and regional models all show the depression opening
into a trough within the next 24 hours, with the remnants of the
system becoming absorbed within a frontal zone off the southeast
U.S. on Wednesday.  The NHC intensity forecast is a little lower
than the previous one and now shows dissipation occurring sooner, by
36 hours.

Direct impacts from the depression are expected to be limited to 1
to 3 inches of rainfall in the Bahamas and along the east coast of
Florida.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  23/0300Z 26.1N  79.3W   25 KT  30 MPH
 12H  23/1200Z 28.4N  79.8W   25 KT  30 MPH
 24H  24/0000Z 31.7N  78.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  24/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

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