Tropical Depression Rina Forecast Discussion Number 14

By | October 1, 2023

WTNT43 KNHC 012039

Tropical Depression Rina Discussion Number  14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL182023
500 PM AST Sun Oct 01 2023

Rina is barely a tropical cyclone. Its associated sheared convection 
collapsed a few hours ago, and the fully exposed low-level center 
has continued to lose definition based on recent GOES derived motion 
wind (DMW) vectors. Assuming some weakening has occurred since the 
earlier scatterometer passes, the initial intensity is lowered to 30 
kt for this advisory.

The initial motion of Rina is still northwestward (325/14 kt), but 
the shallow cyclone is expected to turn northward soon while moving 
around the western extent of a low-level ridge. The continued 
northwesterly shear and dry air in the surrounding environment are 
expected to limit convective development going forward, and Rina 
is likely to degenerate to a remnant low or open into a trough 
during the next 12-24 h. No notable changes were made to the NHC 
track or intensity forecast. 


INIT  01/2100Z 26.2N  55.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  02/0600Z 28.2N  55.4W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  02/1800Z...DISSIPATED

Forecaster Reinhart

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