Tropical Depression Nine Forecast Advisory Number 3

By | September 23, 2022

000
WTNT24 KNHC 232103 CCA
TCMAT4

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   3...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092022
2100 UTC FRI SEP 23 2022

CORRECTED FOR NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH 
FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...INCLUDING GRAND CAYMAN...LITTLE 
CAYMAN...AND CAYMAN BRAC.

THE GOVERNMENT OF JAMAICA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR
JAMAICA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CAYMAN ISLANDS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* JAMAICA

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.  A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.7N  71.3W AT 23/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT  13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.7N  71.3W AT 23/2100Z
AT 23/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.6N  70.7W

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 14.8N  73.1W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 15.0N  75.4W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 15.6N  77.6W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  30SE   0SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 16.8N  79.7W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 80NE  60SE   0SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 18.8N  81.2W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT...100NE  80SE  40SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 20.7N  82.3W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE  60SW  90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 27/1800Z 24.4N  83.2W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 28/1800Z 27.0N  82.7W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.7N  71.3W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 24/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER REINHART


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