Tropical Depression Gert Forecast Discussion Number 12

By | August 22, 2023

WTNT41 KNHC 220849

Tropical Depression Gert Discussion Number  12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062023
500 AM AST Tue Aug 22 2023

Gert is a very disorganized system and may no longer have a closed 
circulation.  Consequently, we'll await further justification 
from the conventional visible imagery and this morning's 
scatterometer passes.  The current intensity estimate remains at 25 
kt in agreement with a Dvorak estimate from SAB.

The statistical-dynamical SHIPS intensity guidance suggests 
that strong shear should weaken the system further while it moves 
west-northwestward, and Gert is forecast to open up into a trough of 
low-pressure, and this is explicitly shown in the NHC forecast.  
Once again, no significant changes were made to the NHC track or 
intensity forecasts, which is also in agreement with the latest 
multi-model consensus and global model forecasts.


INIT  22/0900Z 17.2N  58.8W   25 KT  30 MPH
 12H  22/1800Z 17.6N  59.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  23/0600Z...DISSIPATED

Forecaster Pasch/Roberts

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