Tropical Depression Five Forecast Advisory Number 1

By | September 1, 2022

883 
WTNT25 KNHC 010838
TCMAT5

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052022
0900 UTC THU SEP 01 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.1N  45.0W AT 01/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR  70 DEGREES AT   2 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1013 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.1N  45.0W AT 01/0900Z
AT 01/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 38.1N  45.2W

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 38.2N  44.6W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE  30SE   0SW  30NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 38.2N  44.2W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  40SE   0SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 38.1N  44.0W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE  30SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 38.0N  44.3W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 80NE  70SE  50SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 38.0N  44.7W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT... 90NE  80SE  60SW  80NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 38.2N  45.1W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT... 90NE  80SE  60SW  80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 05/0600Z 39.5N  44.0W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 06/0600Z 41.5N  42.5W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 38.1N  45.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN



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