Tropical Depression Fifteen Forecast Discussion Number 3

By | October 15, 2019

Issued at 500 AM AST Tue Oct 15 2019


000
WTNT45 KNHC 150845
TCDAT5

Tropical Depression Fifteen Discussion Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL152019
500 AM AST Tue Oct 15 2019

The depression remains poorly organized this morning with only
loosely fragmented curved bands observed within the broad
circulation.  The satellite intensity estimates suggest that the
cyclone has not strengthened, and the initial wind speed remains 30
kt, which is near the high end of the Dvorak estimates.

The center of the cyclone has been challenging to locate, and the
satellite center fixes from TAFB and SAB were about 60 n mi apart.
The initial motion is estimated to be northwestward, or 325 degrees,
at 10 kt, but this is of low confidence given the broad nature of
the system.  The depression is expected to move generally
northwestward during the next couple of days steered by a
mid-level ridge over western Africa.  A turn to the west-northwest
is forecast beyond a couple of days when the weak and shallow
system is expected to be steered by the low-level flow.  The NHC
track forecast takes the center of the depression near the eastern
Cabo Verde Islands later today, and this forecast lies near the
various consensus models.

The environmental conditions are expected to remain generally
favorable for about the next 12-24 hours, so there is some chance
that the cyclone could become a tropical storm during that time.
However, given the large size of the system, significant
intensification is not expected.  On Wednesday, a pronounced
increase in southwesterly wind shear, drier air, and cooler SSTs
should end the opportunity for strengthening and cause the cyclone
to become a remnant low in about 2 days when the shear is forecast
to be very strong.  All of the models show the cyclone opening up
into a trough within 3 or 4 days.

Regardless of whether or not the depression becomes a tropical storm
before passing near the Cabo Verde Islands, the primary threat from
this system is the potential for locally heavy rainfall and flash
flooding in those islands.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  15/0900Z 15.6N  20.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  15/1800Z 16.4N  22.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  16/0600Z 17.5N  23.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  16/1800Z 18.4N  24.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  17/0600Z 19.4N  25.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  18/0600Z 21.5N  29.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  19/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

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