Tropical Depression Dolly Forecast Discussion Number 8

By | June 24, 2020

Issued at 500 AM AST Wed Jun 24 2020

WTNT44 KNHC 240832
Tropical Depression Dolly Discussion Number   8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL042020
500 AM AST Wed Jun 24 2020
Deep convection associated with Dolly has become limited and it
is confined to an area well to the east of the exposed center.
This degraded structure is because the cyclone is now over very
cool 22 degree C waters. ASCAT data from several hours ago
indicated that maximum winds have fallen below tropical storm force,
and the initial intensity is lowered to 30 kt based on that data and
the latest Dvorak estimate from TAFB.  This makes Dolly a tropical
depression, and the system is well on its way to becoming a remnant
low.  Since the depression is headed for even cooler waters,
continued weakening is expected and Dolly will likely become a
remnant low later today.  Dissipation is now expected to occur by
36 hours, but the global models suggest that it could occur even 
sooner than that.
The tropical depression is moving northeastward at 10 kt.  A faster
northeastward motion on the north side of a subtropical ridge is
expected until the system dissipates on Thursday.  The NHC track
forecast lies near the middle of the tightly clustered model 
INIT  24/0900Z 41.7N  59.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  24/1800Z 43.1N  57.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  25/0600Z 45.1N  53.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  25/1800Z...DISSIPATED
Forecaster Cangialosi

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