Tropical Depression Cristobal Public Advisory Number 27

By | June 8, 2020

Issued at 400 AM CDT Mon Jun 08 2020


000
WTNT33 KNHC 080835
TCPAT3
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Cristobal Advisory Number  27
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL032020
400 AM CDT Mon Jun 08 2020
 
...CRISTOBAL WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AS IT MOVES FARTHER
INLAND...
...HEAVY RAINFALL AND STORM SURGE CONTINUE ALONG THE GULF COAST
FROM SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA EASTWARD TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.0N 91.2W
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM N OF BATON ROUGE LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
All Tropical Storm Warnings are discontinued.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs Mississippi
* Lake Borgne
 
A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline. For
a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.  This is a life-threatening situation.  Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.
 
For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression
Cristobal was located near latitude 31.0 North, longitude 91.2 West.
The depression is moving toward the north-northwest near 10 mph   
(17 km/h) and this motion should continue with some increase in 
forward speed today.  A turn toward the north is expected tonight, 
followed by a north-northeast motion and a faster forward speed 
Tuesday through Wednesday.  On the forecast track, the center of 
Cristobal should move through southwestern Mississippi and 
northeastern Louisiana today, through Arkansas and eastern Missouri 
tonight and Tuesday, and reach Wisconsin and the western Great 
Lakes by Wednesday. 
 
Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with 
higher gusts.  Additional weakening is expected through Tuesday.  
However, Cristobal is expected to strengthen some as it becomes an 
extratropical low Tuesday night and Wednesday.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure based on surface 
observations is 994 mb (29.36 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Cristobal can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC, and
on the web at https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml
 
STORM SURGE:  The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline.  The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...
 
Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs MS including Lake
Borgne...3-5 ft
Morgan City LA to Mouth of the Mississippi River...1-3 ft
Ocean Springs MS to Okaloosa/Walton County Florida line, including
Mobile Bay and Pensacola Bay...1-3 ft
 
The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds and will likely extend along the coast well to the
east of the center.  Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances.  For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.
 
WIND: Wind gusts to tropical-storm force are expected this morning
over portions of the northern Gulf coast from southeastern
Louisiana to the western Florida Panhandle.  Gusty winds could also 
occur Tuesday night and Wednesday over portions of the Midwest and 
western Great Lakes as Cristobal becomes an extratropical low.
 
RAINFALL: Cristobal is expected to produce storm total rainfall
accumulations of 5 to 10 inches across portions of the central to
eastern Gulf Coast into the Lower Mississippi Valley, with isolated
amounts to 15 inches.  Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches with local
amounts to 6 inches are expected across portions of the Mid to Upper
Mississippi Valley and Northern Plains near and in advance of
Cristobal.  This rainfall has led to flash flooding and forecast
widespread river flooding across portions of the central Gulf Coast
into the Lower Mississippi Valley.  Smaller streams across southeast
LA and southern MS have begun to rise and are forecast to crest
mid-week.  New and renewed significant river flooding is possible
across the mid and upper Mississippi Valley.
 
TORNADOES:  Isolated tornadoes are possible today and tonight across
Mississippi, Alabama, southeastern Louisiana, eastern Arkansas,
western Tennessee, and southeastern Missouri.
 
SURF:  Swells generated by Cristobal will affect portions of the
northern and eastern Gulf coast through today. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Beven
 

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