Tropical Depression Cristobal Forecast Discussion Number 27

By | June 8, 2020

Issued at 400 AM CDT Mon Jun 08 2020


000
WTNT43 KNHC 080836
TCDAT3
 
Tropical Depression Cristobal Discussion Number  27
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL032020
400 AM CDT Mon Jun 08 2020
 
Radar and surface observations indicate that Cristobal has continued 
to weaken as it moves farther inland.  The initial intensity is 
reduced to 30 kt, with these winds occuring over portions of the 
coastline and coastal waters from southeastern Louisiana to the 
western Florida Panhandle.  The surface observations also indicate 
that the central pressure is near 994 mb. While the cyclone is 
weakening, satellite and radar data show a large area of convective 
bands continuing in the northeastern quadrant.
 
The initial motion is now 330/9.  There is no change to the track
forecast philosophy from the previous advisory.  Cristobal should
continue north-northwestward today as a high pressure ridge over the
Great Lakes slides eastward.  The cyclone is expected to turn
northward by tonight around the east side of the ridge, and then it
should turn northeastward on Tuesday ahead of a mid-latitude trough
moving into the central United States. A faster northeastward
motion should bring the center of the cyclone across the Upper
Midwest on Tuesday and into Canada on Wednesday.  After that time,
the system is expected to slow down after it completes its
extratropical transition.  There is little change to the previous
forecast track except at 96 h, where the new forecast is a bit
south of the previous forecast.

The cyclone should continue to gradually weaken for the next 
36-48 h as it moves farther inland.  After that time, some 
re-intensification is expected as Cristobal becomes involved with 
mid-latitude cyclogenesis over the Upper Mississippi Valley, and 
the intensity forecast will call for the system to be a 35-kt 
extratropical low by 60 h.  The cyclone is forecast to dissipate 
inside the envelope of another extratropical low by 120 h. It should 
be noted that Cristobal and the mid-latitude cyclone will combine to 
possibly cause gusty winds over portions of the Midwest and Great 
Lakes regions.
 
Although Cristobal has weakened, life-threatening storm surge is
expected to continue over a portion of the northern Gulf coast
today. Heavy rains associated with the system will also spread over
portions of the central United States over the next couple of days.
 
 
Key Messages:
 
1. Although the center of Cristobal has moved inland, there remains
a danger of life-threatening storm surge outside of the Hurricane
and Storm Damage Risk Reduction System from the Mouth of the
Mississippi River to Ocean Springs, Mississippi, and a Storm Surge
Warning is in effect for those areas.  Residents in these locations
should follow advice given by local emergency officials.
 
2. Heavy rain associated with Cristobal will continue to push inland 
across the central Gulf coast and into the Lower Mississippi Valley 
today, then up the Mid and Upper Mississippi Valley Monday night 
through Tuesday night. The Central Gulf Coast region will be most 
prone to heavy rain issues after the passage of the center of 
Cristobal through Monday. Flash flooding, and new and renewed 
significant river flooding is possible, especially where heavier 
rainfall occurs over portions of the Gulf Coast through the 
Mississippi Valley.
 
3. Wind gusts to tropical-storm force are expected this morning in
the coastal areas from southeastern Louisiana to the western
Florida Panhandle.  In addition, the combination of Cristobal and a
mid-latitude cyclone may cause gust winds by midweek over portions
of the Midwest and Great lakes regions.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  08/0900Z 31.0N  91.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 12H  08/1800Z 32.7N  91.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 24H  09/0600Z 35.8N  91.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 36H  09/1800Z 39.9N  90.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 48H  10/0600Z 44.7N  88.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  10/1800Z 49.0N  85.8W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  11/0600Z 51.0N  83.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  12/0600Z 51.5N  78.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  13/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Beven
 

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