Tropical Depression Cristobal Forecast Advisory Number 16

By | June 5, 2020

Issued at 1500 UTC FRI JUN 05 2020


000
WTNT23 KNHC 051446
TCMAT3
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CRISTOBAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL032020
1500 UTC FRI JUN 05 2020
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
A STORM SURGE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO
COAST FROM INDIAN PASS TO AREPIKA FLORIDA AND FROM GRAND ISLE 
LOUISIANA TO OCEAN SPRINGS MISSISSIPPI...INCLUDING LAKE BORGNE.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO COAST FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA TO THE
ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER...INCLUDING LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE
MAUREPAS.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* INDIAN PASS TO AREPIKA FLORIDA
* GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA TO OCEAN SPRINGS MISSISSIPPI
* LAKE BORGNE
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER
* LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS
* PUNTA HERRERO TO RIO LAGARTOS MEXICO
 
A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-
THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS IN THE WATCH AREA IN MEXICO COULD OCCUR
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.0N  89.9W AT 05/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  40 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT  10 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
12 FT SEAS..270NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.0N  89.9W AT 05/1500Z
AT 05/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.5N  90.0W
 
FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 21.7N  90.0W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT...170NE 150SE   0SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 23.8N  90.3W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...200NE 200SE   0SW 140NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 25.6N  90.3W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...240NE 210SE   0SW 150NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 27.3N  90.4W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  60SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...180NE 150SE  60SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 29.1N  90.9W...ON COAST
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  60SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE  60SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 31.2N  91.9W...INLAND
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  50SE   0SW   0NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 09/1200Z 36.7N  92.1W...INLAND
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 10/1200Z 43.0N  89.5W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.0N  89.9W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 05/1800Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
 
 

Leave a Reply