Subtropical Storm Melissa Forecast Advisory Number 4

By | October 12, 2019

Issued at 0900 UTC SAT OCT 12 2019


000
WTNT24 KNHC 120830
TCMAT4

SUBTROPICAL STORM MELISSA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142019
0900 UTC SAT OCT 12 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

FOR INFORMATION ON WIND AND COASTAL FLOODING HAZARDS...SEE PRODUCTS
ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE AT WEATHER.GOV.

SUBTROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.1N  68.2W AT 12/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR  55 DEGREES AT   6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  998 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  45 KT WITH GUSTS TO  55 KT.
34 KT.......240NE   0SE 180SW 240NW.
12 FT SEAS..780NE 120SE 420SW 360NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.1N  68.2W AT 12/0900Z
AT 12/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 38.0N  68.5W

FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 38.4N  66.7W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT...100NE   0SE 100SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 39.0N  63.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 39.6N  60.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 40.3N  56.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 41.6N  47.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 16/0600Z...ABSORBED WITHIN A FRONTAL ZONE

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 38.1N  68.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI


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