Subtropical Storm Melissa Forecast Advisory Number 3

By | October 12, 2019

Issued at 0300 UTC SAT OCT 12 2019


810 
WTNT24 KNHC 120233
TCMAT4

SUBTROPICAL STORM MELISSA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142019
0300 UTC SAT OCT 12 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

FOR INFORMATION ON WIND AND COASTAL FLOODING HAZARDS...SEE PRODUCTS
ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE AT WEATHER.GOV.

SUBTROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.7N  68.8W AT 12/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST OR 125 DEGREES AT   5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  997 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  45 KT WITH GUSTS TO  55 KT.
34 KT.......240NE   0SE 180SW 240NW.
12 FT SEAS..900NE 240SE 540SW 360NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.7N  68.8W AT 12/0300Z
AT 12/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 37.7N  69.1W

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 37.8N  67.7W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE   0SE 150SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 38.1N  65.2W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT...  0NE 120SE 150SW   0NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 38.5N  62.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 39.0N  58.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 40.4N  50.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 16/0000Z...ABSORBED WITHIN A FRONTAL ZONE

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 37.7N  68.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG



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