Potential Tropical Cyclone Two Public Advisory Number 8A

By | June 29, 2022

000
WTNT32 KNHC 291746
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Two Intermediate Advisory Number 8A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL022022
200 PM AST Wed Jun 29 2022

...DISTURBANCE NEARING THE ABC ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.5N 68.0W
ABOUT 85 MI...140 KM SE OF CURACAO
ABOUT 245 MI...395 KM ESE OF NTHRN TIP OF GUAJIRA PNSULA COLOMBIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 24 MPH...39 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bonaire
* Curacao
* Aruba
* Coast of Venezuela from the Peninsula de Paraguana
westward to the Colombia/Venezuela border including the Gulf of
Venezuela.
* Coast of Colombia from the Colombia/Venezuela border westward to
Santa Marta

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the 
next 24 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the northern coast of Venezuela and the
northern coast of Colombia should monitor the progress of this
system.  Interests in the southwestern Caribbean Sea and along the
Caribbean coasts of Nicaragua and Costa Rica should also monitor
the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 
11.5 North, longitude 68.0 West.  The system is moving toward the 
west near 24 mph (39 km/h), and a fast westward or 
west-northwestward motion is expected through Friday.  On the 
forecast track, the system will pass near the southern Caribbean Sea 
and the northern coast of Venezuela today, near the Guajira 
Peninsula of Colombia early Thursday and over the southwestern 
Caribbean Sea later on Thursday and on Friday.  The system is 
expected to be near or over Nicaragua by Friday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next few days while
the disturbance remains over water.

Conditions appear conducive for development while the disturbance
remains over water, and it is expected become a tropical storm while
moving westward across the southern Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent. 

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) 
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb (29.83 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Two can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO
header WTNT42 KNHC.

RAINFALL: The Potential Tropical Cyclone is expected to produce
heavy rain across the Windward Islands and northeast Venezuela
today, and from the ABC Islands to portions of northern Venezuela
and northeast Colombia today through Thursday morning. The following
storm total rainfall amounts are expected:

Windward Islands from St. Lucia to Trinidad and Tobago: 1 to 3
inches.

North-Central Venezuela: 4 to 6 inches.

Aruba, Curacao and Bonaire to northwestern Venezuela and northern
Colombia: 3 to 5 inches.

Localized flash flooding will be possible.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected over the ABC Islands
later today.  Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning
area along the northwestern coast of Venezuela and along the
coast of northeastern Colombia tonight and early Thursday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

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