Potential Tropical Cyclone Two Public Advisory Number 14

By | July 1, 2022

000
WTNT32 KNHC 010234
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Two Advisory Number  14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL022022
1100 PM EDT Thu Jun 30 2022

...DISTURBANCE MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.8N 77.7W
ABOUT 410 MI...665 KM E OF BLUEFIELDS NICARAGUA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Nicaragua/Costa Rica border to Laguna de Perlas Nicaragua

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* San Andres Colombia
* Limon Costa Rica northward to Sandy Bay Sirpi Nicaragua

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Cabo Blanco Costa Rica northward to Puerto Sandino Nicaragua

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere along both the Caribbean and Pacific coasts of
Nicaragua and Costa Rica should monitor the progress of this
system.  A Tropical Storm Warning may be necessary for portions of
the Pacific coasts of Costa Rica and Nicaragua on Friday.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the disturbance was centered near
latitude 11.8 North, longitude 77.7 West. The system is moving
toward the west near 21 mph (33 km/h), and a continued mostly 
westward motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected 
through Saturday.  On the forecast track, the system will move 
across the southwestern Caribbean Sea tonight through Friday, cross 
southern Nicaragua or northern Costa Rica Friday night, and 
emerge over the eastern Pacific Ocean on Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is forecast through Friday while the system 
approaches Central America.  Weakening is expected while the system
crosses Central America, but restrengthening is forecast on Saturday
once it moves over the Pacific Ocean.

Conditions appear conducive for development, and the disturbance is
expected become a tropical storm while slowing down over the
southwestern Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours... high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Two can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO
header WTNT42 KNHC.

RAINFALL: The Potential Tropical Cyclone is expected to produce
heavy rain across Nicaragua and Costa Rica by Friday. The following
storm total rainfall amounts are expected:

Nicaragua and Costa Rica: 4 to 8 inches, with isolated higher totals
around 12 inches. This rainfall is expected to result in areas of
life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the Hurricane Watch
area in Nicaragua late Friday.  Tropical storm conditions are
expected over San Andres Island on Friday.  Tropical storm
conditions are expected within the Tropical Storm Warning areas
in Nicaragua and Costa Rica by late Friday.  Tropical storm
conditions are possible within the Tropical Storm Watch areas along
the Pacific coasts of Costa Rica and Nicaragua on Saturday.

STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1
to 3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast of
Nicaragua near and to the north of where the center makes landfall.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven

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