Potential Tropical Cyclone Two Forecast Discussion Number 5

By | June 28, 2022

907 
WTNT42 KNHC 282043
TCDAT2

Potential Tropical Cyclone Two Discussion Number   5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL022022
500 PM AST Tue Jun 28 2022

The disturbance continues to generate strong convection with some 
banding features over the northern portion of the system.  
Nonetheless, observations from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft, 
including Tail Doppler radar wind data, along with imagery from the 
Barbados radar indicate that the system still lacks a closed 
circulation.  

Given that the disturbance should continue to move through a 
low-shear and moderately moist atmospheric environment for the next 
couple of days, some intensification is possible, and the 
system is expected to make the transition to a tropical cyclone 
on Wednesday.  However interaction with land, including low-level 
inflow off the land mass of South America will likely limit 
intensification until the system reaches the southwestern Caribbean 
Sea later this week.  More significant strengthening, possibly into 
a hurricane, could occur over the latter region as shown in the 
official forecast.  Late in the forecast period, the global models 
suggest that the cyclone's low-level circulation will remain intact 
after crossing Central America and this is also shown by the NHC 
forecast.

Although the center position is not precise, the initial motion
estimate continues to be quickly westward or about 280/21 kt.  
There is no significant change to the track forecast philosophy. A 
strong mid-tropospheric ridge is expected to be maintained to 
the north of the system through this week.  Therefore a continued 
westward to west-northwestward motion is expected through the 
forecast period.  The official forecast track remains about the 
same and closely follows the dynamical model consensus.


KEY MESSAGES:

1.  Heavy rainfall is expected across the Windward Islands, 
northeastern Venezuela, and the ABC Islands through Wednesday. 
Localized flash flooding will be possible.

2.  Winds to tropical-storm-force are expected over portions of the
southern Windward Islands tonight, over Islas Margarita Wednesday
morning, and over the ABC Islands by Wednesday evening.  Tropical
storm conditions are possible along the northeastern coast of
Venezuela tonight and early Wednesday.

3.  There is a greater-than-normal uncertainty in the system's 
forecast intensity once it reaches the southwestern Caribbean Sea 
late Thursday and Friday, which will depend on how much it interacts 
with land from tonight through Thursday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  28/2100Z 10.1N  59.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
 12H  29/0600Z 10.8N  62.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
 24H  29/1800Z 11.4N  66.6W   35 KT  40 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
 36H  30/0600Z 11.9N  70.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  30/1800Z 12.1N  73.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 60H  01/0600Z 12.1N  77.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
 72H  01/1800Z 12.0N  80.4W   65 KT  75 MPH
 96H  02/1800Z 12.0N  85.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
120H  03/1800Z 13.0N  90.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...OVER THE PACIFIC

$$
Forecaster Pasch


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