Potential Tropical Cyclone Two Forecast Advisory Number 4

By | June 28, 2022

108 
WTNT22 KNHC 281448
TCMAT2

POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE TWO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL022022
1500 UTC TUE JUN 28 2022

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF VENEZUELA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR
ISLAS DE MARGARITA...COCHE AND CUBAGUA.

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE NETHERLANDS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR BONAIRE.

THE GOVERNMENT OF CURACAO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR
CURACAO.

THE GOVERNMENT OF ARUBA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR
ARUBA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO
* GRENADA AND ITS DEPENDENCIES
* ISLAS DE MARGARITA...COCHE AND CUBAGUA
* BONAIRE
* CURACAO
* ARUBA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* COAST OF VENEZUELA FROM PEDERNALES TO CUMANA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...THE NORTHERN COAST OF
VENEZUELA...AND THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF COLOMBIA SHOULD MONITOR
THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR  9.8N  57.5W AT 28/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  60 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT  20 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT....... 50NE   0SE   0SW  50NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR  9.8N  57.5W AT 28/1500Z
AT 28/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR  9.6N  56.5W

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 10.5N  60.5W...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE   0SE   0SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 11.3N  64.5W...TROPICAL CYCLONE
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE   0SE   0SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 11.7N  68.3W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE   0SE   0SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 12.1N  72.0W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 80NE   0SE   0SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 12.2N  75.4W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...100NE  30SE   0SW  80NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 12.1N  78.7W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT...100NE  60SE  30SW  80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 02/1200Z 12.0N  84.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 03/1200Z 12.5N  90.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF  9.8N  57.5W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 28/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH



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