000
FONT11 KNHC 211453
PWSAT1
POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE SIXTEEN
WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162023
1500 UTC THU SEP 21 2023
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE SIXTEEN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4)
PROVIDENCE RI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5)
MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6)
ISLIP NY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3)
NYC JFK AIRPRT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 4(10) X(10)
NYC CNTRL PARK 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
NEWARK NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
TRENTON NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4)
NWS EARLE NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
ALLENTOWN PA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4)
PHILADELPHIA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5)
ATLANTIC CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5)
BALTIMORE MD 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
DOVER DE 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
ANNAPOLIS MD 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) X( 7)
WASHINGTON DC 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
CAPE HENLOPEN 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 17(21) 3(24) X(24)
CAPE HENLOPEN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 18(24) 2(26) X(26)
OCEAN CITY MD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
PAX RIVER NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 1(10) X(10)
WALLOPS CDA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 21(28) 1(29) X(29)
WALLOPS CDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5)
CHARLOTTESVIL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
RICHMOND VA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 9(14) X(14) X(14)
NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 9(15) X(15) X(15)
OCEANA NAS VA 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 17(22) 18(40) 1(41) X(41)
OCEANA NAS VA 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
ELIZABETH CTY 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) 8(19) X(19) X(19)
RALEIGH NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
ROCKY MT NC 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 4( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
CAPE HATTERAS 34 X 2( 2) 19(21) 32(53) 4(57) X(57) X(57)
CAPE HATTERAS 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) 2(14) 1(15) X(15)
CAPE HATTERAS 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
CHERRY PT NC 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 16(20) 3(23) X(23) X(23)
NEW RIVER NC 34 X 3( 3) 23(26) 30(56) 3(59) X(59) X(59)
NEW RIVER NC 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 10(13) 2(15) X(15) X(15)
NEW RIVER NC 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
MOREHEAD CITY 34 X 2( 2) 21(23) 28(51) 3(54) X(54) X(54)
MOREHEAD CITY 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12)
MOREHEAD CITY 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
SURF CITY NC 34 X 2( 2) 13(15) 15(30) 3(33) X(33) X(33)
SURF CITY NC 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
BALD HEAD ISL 34 X 2( 2) 10(12) 8(20) 1(21) X(21) X(21)
LITTLE RIVER 34 X 2( 2) 4( 6) 5(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12)
MYRTLE BEACH 34 X 2( 2) 4( 6) 2( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
CHARLESTON SC 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
