Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Forecast Advisory Number 3

By | September 13, 2019

Issued at 0900 UTC FRI SEP 13 2019


000
WTNT24 KNHC 130857
TCMAT4

POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE NINE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092019
0900 UTC FRI SEP 13 2019

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM THE VOLUSIA-BREVARD
COUNTY LINE TO THE FLAGLER-VOLUSIA COUNTY LINE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS EXCLUDING ANDROS ISLAND

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* JUPITER INLET TO FLAGLER-VOLUSIA COUNTY LINE

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.  ADDITIONAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS MAY
BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THIS AREA LATER TODAY.

POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.6N  75.2W AT 13/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT   5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  25 KT WITH GUSTS TO  35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.6N  75.2W AT 13/0900Z
AT 13/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.3N  74.9W

FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 25.1N  76.2W...TROPICAL DEPRESSION
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 26.0N  77.8W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 27.0N  79.3W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  40SE   0SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 28.2N  80.4W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE  60SE  30SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 30.3N  81.1W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 90NE  70SE  30SW  50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 17/0600Z 31.0N  80.5W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 18/0600Z 32.0N  78.5W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.6N  75.2W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 13/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN


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