Potential Tropical Cyclone Four Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3

By | August 20, 2022

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FONT14 KNHC 200831
PWSAT4

POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE FOUR WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   3 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL042022               
0900 UTC SAT AUG 20 2022                                            

AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE FOUR WAS LOCATED  
NEAR LATITUDE 22.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 95.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM         
SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H.                     

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      

WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 


  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   

               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU

FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   

ROCKPORT TX    34  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

CORPUS CHRISTI 34  X   3( 3)   3( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)

GFMX 270N 960W 34  X   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

MCALLEN TX     34  X  16(16)   2(18)   X(18)   X(18)   X(18)   X(18)

HARLINGEN TX   34  X  20(20)   1(21)   X(21)   X(21)   X(21)   X(21)

BROWNSVILLE TX 34  X  22(22)   1(23)   X(23)   X(23)   X(23)   X(23)

GFMX 250N 960W 34 12   2(14)   X(14)   X(14)   X(14)   X(14)   X(14)

$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BERG                                                     

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