Potential Tropical Cyclone Four Public Advisory Number 2A

By | August 20, 2022

000
WTNT34 KNHC 200534
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Four Intermediate Advisory Number 2A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL042022
100 AM CDT Sat Aug 20 2022

...HEAVY RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS ACROSS 
PORTIONS OF SOUTH TEXAS AND NORTHEASTERN MEXICO THROUGH TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.2N 95.5W
ABOUT 275 MI...445 KM SSE OF MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The Gulf coast of Mexico from Boca de Catan northward to the
Mouth of the Rio Grande
* The Lower Texas coast from Port Mansfield southward to the Mouth
of the Rio Grande

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 
the next 24 hours.

For storm information specific to your area in the United States, 
including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor 
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast 
office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the 
United States, please monitor products issued by your national 
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
22.2 North, longitude 95.5 West.  The system is moving toward the
northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this motion is expected to
continue for the next couple of days.  The disturbance is expected
to reach the coast of northeastern Mexico this evening and then 
move across the Rio Grande Valley tonight and Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Slow strengthening is expected until the system reaches the 
coast, and the disturbance is forecast to become a tropical storm 
later today. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.  

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Four can be found in 
the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO 
header WTNT44 KNHC.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to occur in the warning 
area beginning this afternoon or evening.

RAINFALL: The disturbance is expected to produce total rainfall
amounts of 3 to 6 inches, with isolated totals of 8 inches, along
the eastern coast of Mexico from the northern portions of the state
of Veracruz across the state of Tamaulipas to Nuevo Leon through
today. Rainfall of 2 to 4 inches will be possible in South Texas
through tonight with continuing uncertainty in how far north
and west these amounts will be realized. The potential exists for
life-threatening mudslides in the mountains of Mexico and
life-threatening flash flooding elsewhere along the track of the
disturbance.

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline.  The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Mouth of Rio Grande to Port Mansfield TX...1-2 ft

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.  For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1 to 2 feet above
normal tide levels along the immediate coast of northeastern Mexico
near and to the north of where the center makes landfall.

SURF: Swells generated by this system are forecast to affect eastern
Mexico and southern Texas this weekend. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg

Leave a Reply