Potential Tropical Cyclone Four Forecast Discussion Number 6

By | August 21, 2022

838 
WTNT44 KNHC 210235
TCDAT4

Potential Tropical Cyclone Four Discussion Number   6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL042022
1000 PM CDT Sat Aug 20 2022

Satellite imagery, surface observations, and radar data indicate 
that the main vorticity center of the disturbance has moved inland 
over northeastern Mexico and the associated convection has 
decreased.  Based on this, the chance for development has ended and 
the coastal warnings are being discontinued.  Therefore, this will 
be the last NHC advisory on this system.  Additional information on 
this system can be found in statements from local Weather Forecast 
Offices in the United States and from the Meteorological Service of 
Mexico.

The disturbance should move north-northwestward for the next 12 h 
or so before it becomes absorbed in a larger weather system 
developing over Texas.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Locally gusty winds may occur in squalls over portions of 
northeastern Mexico and southern Texas tonight.

2. Rain from the disturbance should affect the northeastern coast 
of Mexico across the state of Tamaulipas tonight and Sunday. This
rainfall could produce isolated flash flooding. The system could
also produce isolated moderate to heavy rainfall across portions of
South Texas, but significant flooding impacts are not expected
there.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  21/0300Z 25.3N  97.9W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 12H  21/1200Z 26.7N  98.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...INLAND
 24H  22/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven


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