Post-Tropical Cyclone Nestor Wind Speed Probabilities Number 9

By | October 19, 2019

Issued at 1500 UTC SAT OCT 19 2019

000
FONT11 KNHC 191451
PWSAT1
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE NESTOR WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   9    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL162019               
1500 UTC SAT OCT 19 2019                                            
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE NESTOR WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 29.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H.                               
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
TIME       12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
OCEAN CITY MD  34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
WALLOPS CDA    34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
NORFOLK NAS    34  X   1( 1)   6( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
NORFOLK VA     34  X   1( 1)   8( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
OCEANA NAS VA  34  X   1( 1)  10(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)
ELIZABETH CTY  34  X   2( 2)  17(19)   1(20)   X(20)   X(20)   X(20)
RALEIGH NC     34  X   5( 5)   3( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
ROCKY MT NC    34  X   4( 4)  10(14)   X(14)   X(14)   X(14)   X(14)
CAPE HATTERAS  34  X   2( 2)  37(39)   1(40)   X(40)   X(40)   X(40)
CAPE HATTERAS  50  X   X( X)   5( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
FAYETTEVILLE   34  X  17(17)   7(24)   X(24)   X(24)   X(24)   X(24)
FAYETTEVILLE   50  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
CHARLOTTE NC   34  X   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
CHERRY PT NC   34  X   7( 7)  30(37)   X(37)   X(37)   X(37)   X(37)
CHERRY PT NC   50  X   X( X)   4( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
NEW RIVER NC   34  X   7( 7)  32(39)   X(39)   X(39)   X(39)   X(39)
NEW RIVER NC   50  X   X( X)   5( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
MOREHEAD CITY  34  X   8( 8)  32(40)   X(40)   X(40)   X(40)   X(40)
MOREHEAD CITY  50  X   X( X)   5( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
SURF CITY NC   34  X  17(17)  24(41)   X(41)   X(41)   X(41)   X(41)
SURF CITY NC   50  X   1( 1)   4( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
WILMINGTON NC  34  X  22(22)  19(41)   X(41)   X(41)   X(41)   X(41)
WILMINGTON NC  50  X   1( 1)   4( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
BALD HEAD ISL  34  X  27(27)  16(43)   X(43)   X(43)   X(43)   X(43)
BALD HEAD ISL  50  X   2( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
FLORENCE SC    34  X  26(26)   1(27)   X(27)   X(27)   X(27)   X(27)
FLORENCE SC    50  X   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
COLUMBIA SC    34  X  10(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)
LITTLE RIVER   34  X  35(35)   8(43)   X(43)   X(43)   X(43)   X(43)
LITTLE RIVER   50  X   3( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
MYRTLE BEACH   34  X  39(39)   4(43)   1(44)   X(44)   X(44)   X(44)
MYRTLE BEACH   50  X   4( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
GEORGETOWN SC  34  X  41(41)   X(41)   X(41)   X(41)   X(41)   X(41)
GEORGETOWN SC  50  X   4( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
CHARLESTON SC  34  X  41(41)   X(41)   X(41)   X(41)   X(41)   X(41)
CHARLESTON SC  50  X   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
BEAUFORT MCAS  34  X  40(40)   X(40)   X(40)   X(40)   X(40)   X(40)
BEAUFORT MCAS  50  X   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
AUGUSTA GA     34  X   5( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
SAVANNAH GA    34  1  36(37)   X(37)   X(37)   X(37)   X(37)   X(37)
KINGS BAY GA   34  5  16(21)   X(21)   X(21)   X(21)   X(21)   X(21)
WAYCROSS GA    34 14  22(36)   X(36)   X(36)   X(36)   X(36)   X(36)
MAYPORT NS FL  34  4   9(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)
JACKSONVILLE   34  6  10(16)   X(16)   X(16)   X(16)   X(16)   X(16)
GAINESVILLE FL 34  7   2( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
DAYTONA BEACH  34  1   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
THE VILLAGES   34  2   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
CEDAR KEY FL   34  6   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
TALLAHASSEE FL 34 66   X(66)   X(66)   X(66)   X(66)   X(66)   X(66)
ST MARKS FL    34 74   X(74)   X(74)   X(74)   X(74)   X(74)   X(74)
APALACHICOLA   34 97   X(97)   X(97)   X(97)   X(97)   X(97)   X(97)
GFMX 290N 850W 34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
PANAMA CITY FL 34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER STEWART                                                  

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