Post-Tropical Cyclone Dorian Forecast Discussion Number 63

By | September 8, 2019

Issued at 500 PM AST Sun Sep 08 2019


000
WTNT45 KNHC 082040
TCDAT5

Post-Tropical Cyclone Dorian Discussion Number  63
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052019
500 PM AST Sun Sep 08 2019

The center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Dorian is over the northeastern
Gulf of St. Lawrence.  An ASCAT-B overpass several hours ago showed
winds of 55-60 kt to the southeast of the center, and much of this
area of wind has moved onshore in western Newfoundland.  Based on
these developments, the initial intensity is lowered to 55 kt.
The global models continue to forecast Dorian to steadily weaken
until the cyclone is absorbed by another large extratropical low to
its north between 36-48 h.  The Ocean Prediction Center (OPC) once
again provided guidance on the forecast intensity and wind radii.

The cyclone continues moving northeastward or 050/20 kt.  This
general motion should continue through tonight, with the center
of Dorian passing near or over northwestern Newfoundland or eastern
Labrador on its way into the far north Atlantic.  This should be
followed by an east-northeastward motion for the remainder of the
cyclone's life.  The dynamical model guidance continues to be in
good agreement, and the new official track is again an update of the
previous advisory.

The National Hurricane Center will continue to issue advisories on
Dorian as a post-tropical cyclone until the threat to eastern
Canada has ended.

Key Messages:

1. Dorian will continue to have significant impacts in portions
of eastern Canada tonight.  Dangerous storm surge impacts are likely
in portions of the northeastern Gulf of St. Lawrence and western
Newfoundland.  Tropical-storm-force should continue over portions of
Newfoundland.  Refer to information from the Canadian Hurricane
Centre for more information on these hazards.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  08/2100Z 51.0N  57.5W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 12H  09/0600Z 53.2N  52.5W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 24H  09/1800Z 55.2N  45.6W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 36H  10/0600Z 56.8N  37.9W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  10/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven

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