Post-Tropical Cyclone Dorian Forecast Discussion Number 61

By | September 8, 2019

Issued at 500 AM AST Sun Sep 08 2019


000
WTNT45 KNHC 080840
TCDAT5

Post-Tropical Cyclone Dorian Discussion Number  61
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052019
500 AM AST Sun Sep 08 2019

The center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Dorian passed very near the
Magdalen Islands around 0600 UTC, and is now between the west coast
of Newfoundland and Anticosti Island.  Earlier ASCAT data indicated
that the wind field remains quite large, but the peak winds have
decreased since yesterday.  Therefore, the initial intensity has
been set at 70 kt.  Dorian is expected to remain a powerful storm
through this afternoon, but the global models show steady weakening
after the center moves northeast of Newfoundland tonight.

The cyclone is moving north-northeastward or 025/23 kt. Dorian
should continue north-northeastward today, then turn east-
northeastward over the North Atlantic as it remains embedded
within the mid-latitude westerlies.  The dynamical model guidance
continues to be in good agreement, and the new official track is
essentially an update of the previous advisory.  The post-tropical
cyclone should should be absorbed by another extratropical low over
the North Atlantic in 2 to 3 days.  The Ocean Prediction Center
(OPC) once again provided guidance on the forecast intensity and
wind radii.

The National Hurricane Center will continue to issue advisories on
Dorian as a post-tropical cyclone until the threat to eastern
Canada has ended.

Key Messages:

1. Dorian will continue to have significant impacts in portions
of eastern Canada today. Dangerous storm surge impacts are likely in
portions of the Gulf of St. Lawrence, southwestern Newfoundland and
eastern Nova Scotia.  Hurricane-force winds are still occurring in
portions of eastern Nova Scotia and are spreading into western
Newfoundland.  Refer to information from the Canadian Hurricane
Centre for more information on these hazards.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  08/0900Z 48.5N  61.1W   70 KT  80 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 12H  08/1800Z 50.9N  58.3W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 24H  09/0600Z 53.6N  52.4W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 36H  09/1800Z 55.7N  45.4W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  10/0600Z 57.0N  37.5W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  11/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown

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