Post-Tropical Cyclone Arlene Forecast Discussion Number 10

By | June 3, 2023

WTNT42 KNHC 032039

Post-Tropical Cyclone Arlene Discussion Number  10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL022023
500 PM EDT Sat Jun 03 2023

Arlene has lacked organized deep convection for quite some time now, 
since about 07Z.  There have been a few short-lived small bursts of 
convection in the northeast quadrant, but they have been getting 
quickly sheared off and lack organization.  Therefore, Arlene no 
longer meets the definition of a tropical cyclone and the system is 
now a remnant low.  The initial intensity is estimated to be 25 kt 
based on a partial ASCAT pass, surface observations, and the earlier 
reconnaissance data.  Strong vertical wind shear and dry air should 
continue to cause weakening, and this system is expected to open 
into a trough on Sunday.

The low pressure area is moving south-southeastward at 6 kt.  A turn 
to the east is expected tonight and that motion should continue 
until the system dissipates.  The remnant low will likely enhance 
rainfall over portions of southern Florida through tonight.

This is the last NHC advisory on Arlene.  For more information, 
see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at


INIT  03/2100Z 23.7N  84.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 12H  04/0600Z 23.6N  83.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  04/1800Z...DISSIPATED

Forecaster Cangialosi

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