Hurricane Pablo Forecast Discussion Number 8

By | October 27, 2019

Issued at 1100 AM AST Sun Oct 27 2019


000
WTNT43 KNHC 271450
TCDAT3

Hurricane Pablo Discussion Number   8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL182019
1100 AM AST Sun Oct 27 2019

Satellite imagery shows that Pablo has continued to maintain a
small eye, and that the eyewall cloud tops have recently cooled.
In addition, early morning microwave satellite intensity estimates,
as well as the CIMSS satellite consensus, indicate that Pablo has
become a hurricane.  The initial intensity is increased to 65 kt as
a blend between the subjective estimate from TAFB and the higher
SATCON estimate, and it is possible this is a little conservative.
The intensification has occurred while Pablo is over sea surface
temperatures of 19-20C, and it is likely that cold mid- to
upper-level air temperatures have allowed the cyclone to maintain
deep convection and strengthen over water temperatures where
tropical cyclones normally weaken.

The initial motion is now 030/28.  The cyclone is expected to turn
northward and slow its forward motion as it approaches a frontal
system to the north during the next 12-24 h, and this will be
followed by a turn toward the northwest as a large mid-latitude low
over the north central Atlantic becomes the main steering mechanism.
The track guidance has again shifted a little to the east, and the
new forecast track is also nudged a little to the east of the
previous track.  Like the previous forecast, it lies close to the
various consensus models.

Pablo should encounter even colder water along the forecast track,
and global model guidance suggests it should merge with the frontal
system between 12-24 h.  This combination should cause Pablo to
weaken and become an extratropical cyclone.  Thereafter, the system
should be absorbed by the much larger low to its west between 48-72
h.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  27/1500Z 42.8N  18.3W   65 KT  75 MPH
 12H  28/0000Z 45.3N  17.2W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  28/1200Z 46.9N  17.8W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 36H  29/0000Z 47.9N  18.7W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  29/1200Z 49.5N  20.3W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  30/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven

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