Hurricane Lorenzo Forecast Discussion Number 12

By | September 25, 2019

Issued at 500 PM AST Wed Sep 25 2019


000
WTNT43 KNHC 252041
TCDAT3

Hurricane Lorenzo Discussion Number  12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132019
500 PM AST Wed Sep 25 2019

Conventional satellite imagery indicates that Lorenzo continues to
become better organized, with the central dense overcast getting
larger while a large complex of outer bands continues in the
southeastern semicircle.  In addition, a AMSR-2 overpass near 1530
UTC suggested there is at least a partial eyewall or convective ring
near the center.  The initial intensity is increased to 80 kt in
best agreement with the CIMSS satellite consensus intensity
estimate. The hurricane still shows good cirrus outflow in all
directions, and it still appears some dry air is entraining into the
system in the northwestern quadrant.

The initial motion is now 285/16.  There is no change to the track
forecast philosophy from the previous advisory.  The subtropical
ridge to the north and northeast of Lorenzo should steer the
hurricane west-northwestward for the next day or so, followed by a
turn toward the northwest as a break develops in the ridge between
45W-50W.  Lorenzo is subsequently forecast to turn northward into
the break by 96 h and recurve into the westerlies around 120 h.
Since the last advisory, the track guidance has shifted a little to
the right after 36 h.  The new forecast track is similar to the
previous track, but after 36 h it now lies a little to the left of
the center of the guidance envelope.

Lorenzo should remain over warm water and in a light shear
environment during the next three days, with the only negative
factor for intensification being episodic intrusions of dry air.
The intensity guidance forecasts continued steady strengthening for
the next 36 h or so, but the the chances of rapid intensification
in the various statistical indices have gone down since the previous
advisory.  The new intensity forecast will call for 36 more hours
of intensification, and it continues to lie near the upper edge of
the intensity guidance.  The intensity forecast follows the general
trend of the guidance in showing little change in strength between
36-96 h, although fluctuations in intensity are likely due to
eyewall replacement cycles during this time. After that time,
Lorenzo is likely to encounter southwesterly shear, and thus some
weakening is forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  25/2100Z 14.5N  36.9W   80 KT  90 MPH
 12H  26/0600Z 15.0N  38.7W   90 KT 105 MPH
 24H  26/1800Z 16.1N  40.5W  105 KT 120 MPH
 36H  27/0600Z 17.7N  41.8W  110 KT 125 MPH
 48H  27/1800Z 19.5N  43.0W  110 KT 125 MPH
 72H  28/1800Z 23.0N  44.3W  105 KT 120 MPH
 96H  29/1800Z 26.5N  43.5W  105 KT 120 MPH
120H  30/1800Z 31.0N  40.5W  100 KT 115 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven

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