Hurricane Isaac Forecast Advisory Number 15

By | September 29, 2024

000
WTNT25 KNHC 291435
TCMAT5

HURRICANE ISAAC FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL102024
1500 UTC SUN SEP 29 2024

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 43.2N  35.6W AT 29/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR  45 DEGREES AT  10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  971 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  65 KT WITH GUSTS TO  80 KT.
64 KT.......  0NE  40SE  40SW   0NW.
50 KT....... 50NE  70SE  60SW  60NW.
34 KT.......180NE 150SE 120SW 160NW.
12 FT SEAS..270NE 480SE 360SW 360NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 43.2N  35.6W AT 29/1500Z
AT 29/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 42.9N  36.2W

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 44.0N  33.6W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 45NE  50SE  50SW  45NW.
34 KT...140NE 120SE 120SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 45.1N  30.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW   0NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 120SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 46.6N  26.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...120NE  80SE  80SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 48.5N  25.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT...170NE  30SE  30SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 50.6N  24.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT...200NE  70SE  20SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 52.8N  23.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT...190NE  60SE   0SW  30NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 03/1200Z 57.1N  18.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT...100NE  50SE   0SW   0NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 04/1200Z 61.2N  14.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT...190NE 105SE   0SW   0NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 43.2N  35.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER MAHONEY/PAPIN


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