Hurricane Idalia Forecast Advisory Number 11

By | August 29, 2023

000
WTNT25 KNHC 290855
TCMAT5

HURRICANE IDALIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL102023
0900 UTC TUE AUG 29 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.1N  85.0W AT 29/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT  12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  981 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  65 KT WITH GUSTS TO  80 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE  15SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT....... 30NE  40SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT....... 80NE 140SE  50SW  50NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 150SE  60SW  75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.1N  85.0W AT 29/0900Z
AT 29/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.6N  85.0W

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 24.9N  84.8W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE  10SW  10NW.
50 KT... 40NE  50SE  30SW  20NW.
34 KT...110NE 150SE  70SW  80NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 27.8N  84.3W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE  10SW  10NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT...100NE 150SE  70SW  80NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 30.6N  82.9W...INLAND
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE  15SW  15NW.
50 KT... 50NE  60SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 150SE  80SW  80NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 32.7N  80.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 150SE  60SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 33.8N  77.5W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT...  0NE  30SE  30SW   0NW.
34 KT...120NE 150SE  60SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 33.9N  74.4W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT...  0NE  30SE  30SW   0NW.
34 KT...120NE 150SE  90SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 02/0600Z 33.3N  71.5W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 03/0600Z 32.5N  70.5W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.1N  85.0W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 29/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE


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